Brighton set to become next COVID hotspot

A COVID calculator

An interactive map has been released that states that the region of Brighton and Hove is top of the list when it comes to  Sussex’s next Coronavirus hotspot.

This map has been produced by a group from Imperial Collage London. They define a hotspot as being an area in which, “there are more than 50 cases of COVID-19 per 100,000 of the population per week”. The “COVID calculator”suggests that there is a 70 per cent chance that Brighton and Hove will be the next hotspot.

There were 115 confirmed new coronavirus cases in the week coming up to October 1st, which is seen to be a large increase in comparison to the week before, which had 39 confirmed cases. Some health experts have stated that this increase could be partly due to the rise in testing sites, however the COVID alert for the region of Brighton and Hove surged to amber on Tuesday.

The data that the map uses is continually updated everyday with all the new and relevant information, and consists of weekly reported deaths, and daily reported cases to help make its predictions. Regions then go on to be colour-coded with regards over the probability of becoming a hotspot. The high risk areas, which have a probability between 75 per cent and 100 per cent, are represented by the colour red.

The lead researcher within the Imperial Collage London team, professor Alex Gandy stated that the model aids us to predict where, “local hotspots of COVID-19 are likely to develop”, based on the trends that are seen within these areas within England and Wales, and that this will be a, “useful tool”, for governments to bring hotspots, “under control”.

Other seaside destinations such as Bournemouth and Christchurch are also in the red zone of the COVID map, having a 93 per cent probability of emerging as a COVID hotspot.

Director of public health Alistair Hill said, “Its really concerning that the number of cases has more than doubled over the past week”. Hill went on to say that if there continues to be a rise in cases, we increase the, “risk of the government imposing more restrictions on the city”, and how we should all make the extra effort or be faced with a, “local lockdown”.

According to The Argus, other areas within Sussex and the predicted possibility of these regions becoming a hotspot are:

  • Horsham – 38 per cent
  • Hastings – 25 per cent
  • Adur – 24 per cent
  • Worthing – 17 per cent
  • Eastbourne – 16 per cent