General Illusion 2015: Possible Outcomes
On Friday 8th May Britain will wake up, and whatever your political persuasion, most people will probably think “well, shit”. At least that is what the polls are pointing to. […]
On Friday 8th May Britain will wake up, and whatever your political persuasion, most people will probably think “well, shit”.
At least that is what the polls are pointing to. The race for Number 10 has been incredibly tight, and with such a wide range of options on the table, it is an election that is pretty impossible to predict.
As is the case in each general election, out of 650 seats, 326 are required at the minimum to form a majority.
When looking at the possible outcomes for this election, we must look at how the political landscape has changed since 2010:
- The Scots have fallen out of love with Labour (and in love with the Scottish National Party).
- The Lib Dem vote has significantly collapsed… no surprise there really!
- Nigel Farage, and hence his party, have grown in popularity due to… well… there’s a question!
- The anti-austerity feeling is making its way through communities, and people are pointing their fingers firmly at the Tories.
As usual we can expect the two biggest parties to be Labour and the Conservatives. The question is, which of them will be biggest and to what extent? From where I’m sat (and I do a lot of sitting), you might as well automatically give both parties 250 seats and then take two random numbers between 0 and 50, and randomly assign them to the two parties. That is how unpredictable it is. So that leaves both parties needing to form a coalition, but we must consider the four factors above, and also the left/right nature of the parties.
Labour have said they don’t want any coalition with the SNP and on the basis of their policies, they wouldn’t be interested in anything with UKIP, which pretty much means they won’t be able to form a majority. A LAB-DEM coalition remains a possibility but the likelihood of both parties having enough is fairly low.
The only party I can realistically see the Tories jumping into bed with are UKIP. But even then I don’t envisage both parties having enough between them to form a majority. There’s the real possibility of another CON-DEM coalition, but would there be enough wiggle room in their manifestos now that Cameron has vowed to have an EU referendum? I’m not convinced.
The seemingly only realistic possibility from this election is one of either Labour or the Conservatives forming a minority government. History tells us though that would be destined to fail, and another election within a short period would be inevitable – oh the joys!
All the politicians are spouting on about “There’s a real choice at this election…” Well they’re right about that! The choice in my view is “who do you want to see have a chance at screwing the country over first?” I am most inclined towards thinking that whether it be the result of a failed coalition or failed minority government, we can expect another month of harassment sooner than 2020… much sooner! The notion that you are voting for who you want to win is therefore nothing but an illusion.
Got any different ideas? Let us know in the comments!