This is exactly when each Love Island 2025 couple will split, based on actual science

Now Love Island 2025 is over, we all bleakly turn our focus on when each couple will split. It’s harsh, but over the years we’ve unfortunately become a bit cynical. Most Love Island couples break up, that’s just the way it goes.

Divorce app SplitUp analysed 53 previous couples across nine seasons to determine how long Love Island couples typically stay together and reveal the couples with the highest odds of staying together long-term. These details have been shared exclusively with The Tab.

It found typical Love Island couples last 145 days, equivalent to just four months and 25 days. There are also stark patterns between the dates when Islanders joined the show, when they coupled up with their partners, and how long they went on to last.

So, given science and stats from previous Islanders, we have a solid amount to base predictions on. Here’s how long each couple from Love Island 2025 is expected to last, before that dreaded split announcement.

Lauren and Harrison – Likely to split within a month

via ITV

It’s been predicted that Lauren and Harrison will be the first Love Island 2025 couple to split up. Ouch. Of the 10 shortest-lasting Love Island couples analysed by SplitUp, seven of those coupled up after day 30, a trend that doesn’t bode well for Harrison and Lauren. Based on the average lifespan of similar couples, they’re predicted to last just 33 days.

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Harrison and Lauren’s journey shared key traits with past short-lived pairings: A late-stage coupling, limited time together on screen, a turbulent dynamic, and a widespread perception of incompatibility. SplitUp’s data highlights that August is the worst month for Love Island break-ups, with both couples likely to split at this stage.

Angel and Ty – Likely to split within a month

via ITV

Similarly to Lauren and Harrison, Angel and Ty also fall into that same bracket. They coupled up after day 30, and had limited time together in the villa. Based on previous couples, this means they too are predicted to break up after around a month.

Toni and Cach – Likely to split within two months

via ITV

Guys, I hate to report but the data isn’t looking good for our winners. Despite initially coupling mid-series (day 30), Toni and Cach fell victim to an infamous Love Island triangle, with Toni choosing to couple up with Harrison on day 35, before going back to Cach late in the series on day 46. The on-off nature of this couple doesn’t bode well for their longevity outside of the villa.

A similar example would be Amber Gill and Greg O’Shea, with Amber coupling with Greg right at the end of the show (day 46) before going on to win the season. Following season five, the couple lasted just 51 days.

Meg and Dejon – Likely to split within three months

via ITV

Uh-oh, the resident boyfriend and girlfriend’s days are apparently numbered. Many have drawn comparisons between Dejon and Meg, and Jake and Liberty, with some suggesting Dejon asking Megan to be his girlfriend was a calculated ploy to make it to the final, just like Jake and Liberty.

If they follow the same route, Meg and Dejon are likely to split early. Given the volatile track record of early couplings, the suspicion is justified, but long-lasting early couples often become fan favourites after the show. If they survive external temptation and remain loyal, their odds improve dramatically.

Shakira and Harry – Likely to split within four months

via ITV

Despite initially coupling early on (day 13), Harry and Shakira’s on-off nature already matches breakup-prone couples, especially those who got together mid-season but lacked stability. These couples have a low probability of making it past the two to four month mark.

A similar example would be Kaz and Tyler, with Tyler jumping from Kaz to Clarrisse in Casa Amor, and then back to Kaz again. Following season seven, the couple lasted just 121 days, a pattern that mirrors Harry and Shakira’s current dynamic and raises doubts over whether they’ll defy the odds or follow the same short-lived course.

Yasmin and Jamie – Likely to split within six months

via ITV

SplitUp forecasts that Yasmin and Jamie are likely to last just five to seven months outside of the villa. They coupled late in the season, but not as extreme as couples from previous seasons.

Mid-to-late couples have slightly better odds than day one couples, but still below couples which formed earlier in the villa. Yasmin and Jamie could stay together longer than the average couple, matching the trajectory of couples such as Ella and Ty, who coupled on day 37 and lasted seven months. We’ll have to wait and see!

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