Pence doesn’t make sense

It took over a year, but Trump has finally made his first major mistake.

His choice of running mate is too conservative, not only ideologically but also in the context of this race. Trump was in a promising position up to this point, but just as the final girl in a slasher film tosses aside the kitchen knife before the killer is dead, Trump has made a similar error in judgment. By choosing Mike Pence, Trump has imposed additional obstacles along his path to the White House.

It would seem like party bosses had their way in completing the GOP ticket. Mike Pence is Republican through and through: a strong supporter of Second Amendment rights, pro-life, very religious, against gay marriage, passive on environmental protections, and so on. Establishment figures and hardcore conservatives may adore him, but they are not the target audience in this election. Trump does not need to win over the evangelical vote; he should be moving ideologically toward the center. It is a bold decision at best and an outright careless one at worst to select someone with Pence’s background to run on a national party ticket in 2016 with demographic trends the way they are.

The Clinton campaign will hammer Pence’s ultra-conservative 12 year voting record in Congress and his three and a half years as governor. And since a recent poll showed that over 85 percent of respondents did not have an opinion on Pence, it is possible that the opposition will define him for the public quicker than the Trump campaign can defend him. (By the same token, there is much more room for positive gain with Pence than there is with someone with higher negative ratings like Gingrich). My early impression is that Pence is a bigger target for Clinton than Trump would want. Although he said he didn’t want an “attack dog” as his running mate, and although Pence is a standard, no-frills politician, Trump still needs a running mate who will hold his own and be assertive. With Pence, there is plenty of freedom to succeed — and to fail.

Who is Mike Pence? CBS News poll

Pence also has little use when viewed through the lens of the all-important Electoral College. Indiana is already solidly Republican; FiveThirtyEight’s current analysis gives Trump an 84 percent chance to win the Hoosier state. I wrote previously how voters in states like Ohio and Florida — not Indiana — essentially have more influential ballots. It has been claimed that Pence, born and raised in Indiana, could help the ticket’s Midwest appeal in neighboring Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and perhaps even Iowa. But he has been facing a formidable threat from the left for his Governor’s seat and his approval ratings have been sinking. Whatever extra ground (probably little) he will gain for Trump in Indiana and the surrounding states, he will lose much more in other areas: one step forward, two steps back.

Trump is clearly not trying to make a splash with this pick. On the one hand, he chose someone safe — someone with a clear record, lengthy experience, and who would not make him look bad on the campaign trail. On the other hand, this is a risky move because he should have done more. Throwing a bone to the conservative base for a general election is overrated since party loyalists will show up to vote for Trump even if he is not their ideal candidate. What is crucial is bridging the gap between the right and the left to absorb votes from the middle.

But Mike Pence just doesn’t do it.