So, will Boris Johnson actually be forced to resign?

The news of the third Downing Street lockdown gathering has caused members of Boris Johnson’s own party to demand his resignation, along with 66% of Tory voters, according to The Independent.

Despite the Met Police failing to investigate the first two lockdown parties, they’re facing increasing pressure to look into the third illegal gathering – which took place on 20th May 2020.

Boris Johnson vehemently denied on yesterday’s Prime Minister’s Questions (12th January) that the event which took place on that evening was a party. “I thought it was a work event and I regret very much that we didn’t do things differently,” he said.

With speculation dominating social media in the wake of the leak, everyone’s asking the same question – will Boris Johnson resign? Here’s everything that could happen next:

Sue Gray’s investigation

Senior cabinet employee Sue Gray is currently investigating all three known parties held by the Tories during lockdown.

Civil servants previously haven’t been great at looking into these illegal lockdown events – Simon Case stepped down in December 2021 from the same inquiry. Sue swiftly took over, with a solid track record of getting MPs kicked out of their own party.

If she concludes that the event held on 20th May was a party (as opposed to a “work event”), the impact on public confidence in Boris Johnson could be catastrophic.

A possible Met Police investigation

Pressure is piling on the police to actually investigate the event – particularly after so many people faced huge fines for breaking restrictions.

The Met are reportedly “in talks” over Downing Street’s illegal event, whether it was purely work or otherwise.

If they decide to launch an inquiry, there would be two possible outcomes – finding in favour of Boris Johnson and confirming the gathering was for work purposes, or concluding that it was, in fact, a party.

He hasn’t yet ruled out a resignation, but suggests everyone wait for the result of the inquiry first. He could be on dodgy ground if the Met concludes a party did happen in May 2020, as people will potentially believe he blatantly lied in parliament to save his own skin.

The 1922 committee could remove him from power

According to ITV News, one Conservative MP – unsatisfied with the Prime Minister’s apology – stated that he could either “resign with dignity” or the 1922 committee could be forced to remove him.

The committee is available for Tory MPs to anonymously submit complaints and letters of no confidence about the Prime Minister. It meets every week to discuss the state of the party – and Boris Johnson himself is expected to attend these meetings at least once every quarter.

A secret ballot could be triggered

If at least 15% of Conservative MPs submit letters of no confidence to the committee, this will then trigger a secret confidence ballot.

The confidence ballot would enable MPs to decide whether they want Boris Johnson to remain in his position, or whether they want to get rid of him for good.

If 50% of MPs give him a vote of no confidence, he’ll be forced to leave the role.

Related stories recommended by this writer:

• There’s nothing funny about the Downing Street parties anymore
• Nearly 300k people have said they’re attending a 10 Downing Street Christmas rave
• Boris Johnson refuses to make misogyny a hate crime