Record numbers of Latinos have voted early in key swing states

The most important presidential election in modern history is upon us, and many voters are eager to make their way to the polls tomorrow. But in states with early voting, nearly 40 million ballots have already been cast, showing how eager voters are to support their candidate.

Early voting data has shown there has been a significant increase in Latino voter turnout overall, but particularly in Florida. After early voting has officially closed in the Sunshine State, Hillary Clinton has taken a slight edge over her Republican opponent—2,558,000 votes were cast by registered Democrats, and 2,471,000 votes were cast by registered Republicans. The presidential race is a long way from a blowout victory for either Clinton or Trump, but one key demographic could make the difference.

Florida has seen the most significant increase in Latino early voter turnout along with having the highest early voter turnout overall. According to Catalist, a data company working with early vote stats, in 2012 9.6 percent of early vote ballots were cast by Latinos in Florida. And now in 2016, that number has increased to 14.1 percent.

Since 2008, Hispanic early voter turnout has increased 126 percent in Florida. This is a significant development given Florida makes up 5 million of the total early votes cast so far—the most out of any early voter state—and its notorious importance in the Electoral College. It could be an indicator of a similar increase in Latino turnout on Election Day, which could make or break both Hillary Clinton’s or Donald Trump’s chances of winning the general.

Throughout the entire election groups like Voto Latino, the National Council of La Raza, and even Lin-Manuel Miranda have increased efforts to get the Latino community excited and registered to vote. It has seemingly worked and enthusiasm within the community is at an all time high. We spoke to some registered Latino voters in Florida about how excited they were to turnout on Tuesday.

Vanessa Marquez, 19, studying at Florida State University, told us to be able to vote at all was incredible.

“As a Cuban-American, having the right to vote is a huge thing. The Latino community as a whole truly appreciates having the right to vote, as some do not have the right to do so back home. I’m super excited to be voting for Hilary Clinton! A lot of my Latino friends are really happy that they get to vote for her their first time being able to vote.”

She also noted that she knew many early voters: “Almost all of my Latino friends have gone and voted early and are really excited/anxious about this year’s election. I think a large part of that has to do with the fact that we really do appreciate having that right and want to act on it.”

Vanessa

Melody, 40, from Jacksonville, Florida is a Trump supporter. She sees her candidate as the man for the job because of his outsider status.

“This year has been the first time I have been very excited about voting, I guess it’s because I really feel like my vote counts” said Melody. “I don’t want to see the same things happening. I think many people are like me, they want to see change.”

Asked about whether or not she felt like Florida Latinos were particularly excited about this election she said: “Yes, I do. I think a lot depends on the issues we believe in and what kinds of changes we want to see.” Issues like putting America first and ending corrupt behavior were most important to her and other Latinos she knows.

“I could see a record number [of Latinos] coming out to vote,” she said citing Latino disdain and support she has seen for Donald Trump’s infamous border wall as part of the reason why.

“I know that Trump has talked a lot about building a wall. That could be part of the reason.

“Maybe they don’t want a wall, and they’re worried about what will happen to their family members. Or maybe they agree that we need to establish some sort of border between the U.S. and its neighboring countries.”

The Latino community is being mobilized for and against Trump, making it clear a storm is coming in the way of a potential record in Latino voter turnout—only Election Day will tell us who that helps. According to the Pew Research Center there are more Latinos registered as Democrats than are registered Republicans—678,000 to 479,000 respectively.

Although the numbers seem to be stacked against Trump, the game is mobilizing the vote and getting people excited. In an historical election like none other, the Latino community is likely to come out in historical numbers to lift one candidate to 270 Electoral College votes.