Donald Trump will almost certainly lose
A new poll gives him only a 20 percent chance
A new poll from hotshot pollster Nate Silver, who accurately predicted which way every single state would vote in 2012, claims Donald Trump only has a 20 percent chance of winning the presidency.
Silver highlights how the betting markets give Trump a 20 to 25 percent chance, meaning Hillary is 75 to 80 percent likely to be the USA’s first female President.
The poll, launched today on FiveThirtyEight, backs up their polls-plus model which takes in to account current polling statistics alongside current economic circumstances, and gives Trump a more optimistic 26 per cent chance of winning.
“Giving Trump a 20 percent or 25 percent chance of becoming president means that Clinton has a 75 percent to 80 percent chance. That might seem generous given that, under ordinary circumstances, the background conditions of this election (no incumbent running and a mediocre economy) would seem to suggest a tossup. Are Clinton’s high odds justified on the basis of the polls? Or do they require making heroic assumptions about Trump, the same ones that got everyone, emphatically including yours truly, in trouble during the primaries?
“The short answer is that 20 percent or 25 percent is a pretty reasonable estimate of Trump’s chances based on the polls and other empirical evidence. In fact, that’s quite close to where FiveThirtyEight’s statistical models, which are launching today, have the race. Our polls-only model has Trump with a 19 percent chance of beating Clinton as of early Wednesday afternoon. Our polls-plus model, which considers economic conditions along with the polls, is more optimistic about Trump, giving him a 26 percent chance.”
— Walter Hickey (@WaltHickey) June 29, 2016
Silver acknowledges uncertainty is high and it may be “bold” to predict such a result, but maintains that his prediction is “cautious” given Hillary’s seven point lead.
He also highlights that the 25 per cent chance is much greater than it was a year ago.