Formula 1 Season Preview

Yes I know it’s one race late, but trying to predict a season based on pre-season testing is like trying to predict the next time Gazza will end up in rehab. So after a rather interesting opening race in Melbourne where Raikkonen showed he will be a major contender this year here’s a look at the season to come.

Front Runners

Mercedes and Ferrari have made huge steps over the winter and showed their pre-season form down under. Ferrari especially will be pleased to have a good car at the start of the season instead of playing catch-up like the past few seasons and give Alonso a much better chance at the title, even with Massa faster they managed to position Fernando into second place. Mercedes look very good in the wet conditions but in the dry they are probably about level with the Lotus of Kimi (but not Grosjean…) and behind the Ferrari’s and Red Bull’s.

Red Bull still have their usual qualifying speed and expect this to continue, certainly in the couple of Asian races next up where they generally excel. It depends to be seen if Raikkonen can keep the form up with the other teams around him having bigger budgets and the ability to increase their performance throughout the year much better. McLaren have managed to take a giant step backwards and were easily beaten by the Force Indias with the same engines, expect them to improve quickly though and could even be amongst the first couple of rows by the season hits Europe.

Midfield

Force India look easily the best of the midfield and should have taken more points from Australia, hopefully this loss of points won’t cause Sutil to assault someone again. Williams, Sauber and Toro Rosso look very evenly matched, I predict Sauber to perform best out of these teams when they manage to get two cars on the grid.

Toro Rosso drivers are always expected to produce excellent results so Red Bull can promote their drivers, but the car really never lets the drivers show off their full potential (Vettel’s win in Monza a definite special one-off). By the next season look to see Red Bull blood another youngster into the team, maybe even two with Ricciardo left to compete with Alguersuari for a 5live commentary position.

Bringing up the Rear

HRT gone, Minardi Marussia faster than Caterham and three new drivers it’s all change down the back of the grid. But then that’s like saying Liechtenstein have beaten Luxembourg – no one cares. Bianchi is probably the only one to deserve a place at the top of motorsport, with the other three not a patch on Kovalainen, Trulli and Glock, sad times that it’s money and not skill that get’s you a drive these days. These ‘new’ teams are still miles off the pace and the fact Minardi Marussia have moved Caterham in the reckoning just goes to prove that teams are not really getting any closer. Hopefully next year’s radical rules change will eventually let one of these teams challenge regularly for Q2 at least.

Tyres

Pirelli have worked their magic again and showed that fast degrading tyres lead to overtaking and much better racing. But as the tires are so ‘poor’ they have already shown they will have a major effect on the races and the teams didn’t really know how hard their cars were on them until they got into race trim. Force India and Lotus look like their fairly easy on the tires, with Sauber probably as well in future races which is always a bonus and gives for much more flexible strategies. Red Bull tore through their rears and look set to lose their qualifying advantage if they cannot decrease the tire wear. Luckily they’ve got Adrian Newey who will probably have some magical solution by the return to Europe.

It’s looks set to be a topsy turvy season like last year but with Mercedes added to the mix further towards the front, the drama should be even greater. But you can’t really go against Vettel to  just keeping going on breaking records and edging closer to emulating his hero Schumacher. The Top 3 from Oz-land could well be the Top 3 in the championship come November, but probably not in that order.