UEA lecturer to predict election results on Newsnight

The BBC can’t get enough of our staff


One of our very own academics will be predicting the results on BBC in the run-up to the General Election. 

Dr Chris Hanretty, reader in Politics at the school of Politics, Philosophy, Language and Communication Studies, predicts the likelihood of another Hung Parliament using his new election forecasting model.

Dr Hanretty said: “The more important thing is that our prediction says a Hung Parliament is likely. If that is the case people need to start thinking about this now.”

The lecturer hopes that the project, funded by economic and social research council, will encourage the political parties to consider the consequences of a hung parliament.

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Dr Hanretty on Newsnight

The predictions, centred around data from past election results, previous polls, census data in various seats and published national and local polls for the current election, will feature on the late night current affairs show Newsnight.

And the UEA academic himself is expected to appear between six to eight times to provide an analysis.

Dr Hanretty also expressed his astonishment at Michaels Gove’s reaction to his election predictions:

“You heard Michael Gove saying “we are not doing any planning in case the Conservatives don’t get a majority”.

“That is nonsense. We know a hung parliament is likely and they should be planning. I would be astonished if they are not already looking at this.”

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The lecturer also appeared on Newsnight in November

When asked about his experience on television and whether he believes he has inspired UEA students to get more involved in politics the prof said: “It was a fun experience and I hope my research methods students now believe when I say that studying quantitative methods will help them later in life.”

Dr Hanretty’s forecasts have received mixed reviews, with members of the public complaining over social media that their preferred parties have not been forecast enough seats.

With a growing twitter presence, you can follow Dr Hanretty at @chrishanretty or check out his blog: chrishanretty.co.uk/blog/ to find out more about the forecasting model and his predictions.