Euro 2012 top odds

Trying to second-guess international football is near enough impossible.

Prospective punters across the continent will be scratching their respective heads ahead of this summer’s championships, muddling through the over-hyped, the under-appreciated and the reliably unreliable. After giving it some thought, here are my tips on who’s looking good for the Euros, and who might be taking early flights home from Poland and Ukraine.

Top Scorer: Thomas Muller at 25/1 (bet365)
Of all categories, this may well have the most complicated set of criteria: the player has to be going into the tournament in good form, whilst not being burnt out from their club exploits, and similarly needs to be capable of transferring their performances onto the international stage.
With that in mind, there’s a reason I’m ignoring the obvious candidates here. Robin van Persie and Mario Gomez, both of whom have had superb seasons with their respective clubs, are most people’s favourites to be top scorers at the tournament. Both, however, were looking a little jaded in the final weeks of the Premiership and Bundesliga, so I’ve gone for the Golden Boot winner in the 2010 World Cup, Thomas Muller, instead. Germany are a team who look set to play close to, if not the, maximum amount of games, and Muller is a key part of their attack. At just 25/1 he represents excellent value.
For those enticed by even longer odds, the Croatian striker Nikola Jelavic is 40/1 to be the tournament’s top scorer. His team might not be the strongest candidates, but 4 or 5 goals should be enough to claim the golden boot, and the Everton man has shown over the past six months that he’s able to score against the very best. A long shot, but it might just pay off.

Group Stage Exit: England at 13/8 (William Hill)
If the 2010 World Cup taught us anything, it’s that England are miles behind their European rivals. Since the 4-1 humiliation at the hands of Germany in South Africa, we’ve stagnated, falling even further behind the pack. Looking at the group that Roy Hodgson’s team find themselves in, it’s difficult to see where the points will come from; France’s squad is vastly superior to England’s, whilst Sweden represent something of a bogey side in the competition, not forgetting hosts Ukraine, who, though clearly weaker than England, will be desperate to go through on home soil. They aren’t comfortable holding onto a lead and they’re even worse at chasing the game, which is why I suspect they’ll draw each game.
England are too cocky to be dark horses and lack the technical proficiency of their rivals to be serious contenders. It never feels good to bet against your own team, but if they’re going to fail, you might as well make a few quid out of it.

Eliminated by Penalty Shootout: Netherlands at 15/2 (bet365)
It would be a major surprise if the Netherlands failed to qualify from the group stages. Irrespective of the ‘Group of Death’ tag that has been placed on it, Group B (Germany, Holland, Portugal and Denmark) shouldn’t be as tight as many are expecting, especially considering how relentlessly underwhelming Portugal have been in international football over the past four or five years. If we assume that Germany will top the group, the Netherlands would face the winners of Group A, which is generally accepted to be the weakest of the four pools, in the quarter-finals. So far, so good for Bert van Marwijk’s men. It’s the next step that we’re banking on being difficult for the Dutch. Their most likely opponents in the semi-finals are Germany (you already know where this is going, don’t you?) and with there being little between the two sides, it’s conceivable that it could come down to penalties. Forget Chelsea’s Champions League shoot-out win against Bayern; on the international stage Germany are the most reliable penalty takers around – you’d be a fool to bet against them.

Total Red Cards in Group C: Two at 3/1 (Paddy Power)
There are a couple of good reasons why Group C (Spain, Italy, Croatia and Republic of Ireland) could be a particularly feisty one. The first of those reasons is Mario Balotelli. Rash, petulant and as clumsy a tackler as you’ll ever see, the Premier League’s favourite hothead has the potential to provide extra drama to an already tight group, irrespective of whether he starts each game, or comes on as a substitute.
The second reason we could see a high amount of red cards in this group is the presence of Spain. Masters of possession football, it’s never too long before frustration sets in for the opposing side, making a sending off in a game involving the reigning champions all the more likely. If you’re feeling a little more adventurous, Paddy Power are offering odds of 8/1 to see three or more red cards in the group. Making a call between the two, you’d have to weigh up exactly how annoyed you think Spain’s opponents will become, and how volatile the other contests could turn out to be. Either way, I’d be hugely surprised if the red mist didn’t descend for a few players in those early stages.

To win outright: France at 12/1 (Paddy Power)
Spain and Germany might be the favourites, but I’ve got a good feeling about Laurent Blanc’s French side. Critics suggest that their defensive vulnerability will let them down, but that underestimates quite how impressive their attacking firepower is; Ben Arfa, Benzema, Ribery, Nasri and Cabaye are all likely to start, and if they fulfil their combined goal-scoring potential there’s no reason why Les Bleus can’t go all the way. Backing France is certainly risky; you only have to look at their record over the past 14 years to see how hit-and-miss they are. After falling at the first hurdle in South Africa, however, it seems as though their new manager, Laurent Blanc, has reinvigorated the side, adding a much needed discipline to the once dissenting squad, and turned them into serious contenders again. In fact, France are the form side going into the tournament, and are unbeaten in 19 matches. As far as Spain go, no team has ever won three international tournaments in a row and it would be a huge surprise if they achieved it, not least because of the absence of Carlos Puyol and David Villa, who were instrumental in their previous championship wins. Writing off Germany, too, would initially seem unwise, but their squad may well suffer from a little fatigue towards the latter stages of the tournament, and good as they are at getting to finals, their record in them is far less impressive. And, just for fun, if anyone thinks France will beat Germany in the final, commit to it with a ten pound bet and you could earn a return of £750. But, whatever you do, don’t hold me to it…

More important than any of the tips so far – make sure you look out for free bet offers before parting with any of your own money. Most online bookies have a variety of deals for new customers which are well worth a look, especially if you’re loan isn’t stretching as far as you thought it might towards the end of the semester.