Trump has a 60 percent chance of winning Georgia
But just a 12 percent chance of becoming President
According to the New York Times, Hillary Clinton now has an 88 percent chance winning the presidency. So Trump just has a 12 percent chance of becoming Commander-in-Chief.
As a resident of Athens and a student of University of Georgia, I’m more interested in how my peers and my city are voting. That being said, we are not in line with polling predictions.
As of August 30th, our local polls suggest a much different outcome to what the New York Times says.
Seventeen polls have been collected in Georgia thus far. FiveThirtyEight details their methodology as “a polls-only model that takes the weighted, adjusted polling average for each state and uses demographic data to help model the outcome in states with little polling. It then calculates an Election Day forecast, accounting for uncertainty and the correlation of outcomes between states.”
After each candidate’s projected share of the votes have been calculated, the forecast models the election 10,000 different times in order to get the candidate’s chance of winning. Unlike the Republican candidate’s estimated mere 12 percent chance of winning, Trump has a 61.4 percent chance of winning Georgia according to FiveThirtyEight. Looks like UGA wants Trump.
If you don’t, you better get out and vote! Go here to check and see if you’re registered. And if you’re not, click here and register now.