How this weekend’s Libertarian Party convention could change the election

With a Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton matchup, the 2016 election will be a race between unfavorable candidates from both parties.

As the latest CBS/New York Times poll indicates, among registered voters, 57 percent view Trump unfavorably and 52 percent view Clinton unfavorably. These are the highest unfavorability ratings of presidential frontrunners since 1984, when CBS first asked this question.

Assuming Clinton wins the nomination, such dissatisfaction for both party nominees could help a third party candidate gain ground in the general election.

The nominee for the Libertarian Party will be chosen at their national convention this weekend in Orlando, Florida. The likely nominee, Gary Johnson, is currently polling with 10 percent of the vote in two recent national surveys conducted by Fox News and Morning Consult.

Although no third party candidate has ever won the presidency, a third party alternative in a race with disliked candidates can certainly influence the outcome of the 2016 election. In other words, if Johnson gets the nomination, he can get voters who might have considered supporting Clinton or Trump.

Clare Malone notes in her article for FiveThirtyEight:

“Given that Trump and Clinton are sporting historically high negative ratings, Johnson’s polling makes a fair bit of sense; Gary Johnson is neither Donald Trump nor Hillary Clinton.”

Should Johnson get the nomination from the Libertarian Party this weekend, he could make a difference in who becomes the next US president.

This primary season has been filled with surprises — maybe he’ll do more than influence whether a Democrat or Republican wins?